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Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Data Indicate Election Will Be Referendum

Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics
One of the more fashionable debates today is whether the 2012 election will be more of a choice between two candidates, or a referendum on the party in power. Over at The New Republic, Ed Kilgore provides one of the more cogent arguments for the former.Kilgore's assertion flies in the face of the conventional wisdom: That in an incumbent election, the electorate engages in a two-step process. First, it decides whether it likes the incumbent. If it does, the incumbent is re-elected. If it doesn't, it then in Step 2 it asks whether the challenger is acceptable. If the challenger is...

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